§1 · From 90day_kpi_tracker.csvKPI registry — all 101 rows
Phases: SETUP (L1–L5) → LIQUIDITY (L6–L14) → DEMAND (D1–D5) → MEMBERSHIP (M1–M7) → OPS_VA (O1–O14) → OPS_VA2 (51 dept codes) → WOMEN (WH1–WH8). Weekly w1–w13 columns live in the CSV; targets and gates live here.
| Phase | Code | Metric | Target | Unit | Gate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SETUP_W1-W2 | L1 | LICENSE_VERIFICATION_LIVE (DPOR lookup per pro) | 100 | percent_of_ACTIVE_pros_checked | S8.4 |
| SETUP_W1-W2 | L2 | TRUST_CLOAK_LIVE (escrow+guarantee+verification in app) | TRUE | bool | S8.4 |
| SETUP_W1-W2 | L3 | FLAT_QUOTE_SKUS_PER_CAT | >=30 per 3 cats | count | S8.3 |
| SETUP_W1-W2 | L4 | PROS_ONBOARDED | >=30 | count | S1 |
| SETUP_W1-W2 | L5 | INTENT_CANARY_BASELINE | record | index | S2 |
| LIQUIDITY_W3-W6 | L6 | MATCH_RATE | >=60 | percent | S4 |
| LIQUIDITY_W3-W6 | L7 | FILL_RATE (3-day) | >=80 | percent | S4 |
| LIQUIDITY_W3-W6 | L8 | DISPATCH_AI_ROUTED_SHARE | >=80 | percent | S8.2 |
| LIQUIDITY_W3-W6 | L9 | FIXED_QUOTE_SHARE | >=80 | percent_of_booked | S8.3 |
| LIQUIDITY_W3-W6 | L10 | LEAKAGE_PROOFING_INDEX | >=85 | percent_of_platform_jobs | S8.1 |
| LIQUIDITY_W3-W6 | L11 | FIRST_VISIT_FIX_RATE | >=85 | percent | S4 |
| LIQUIDITY_W3-W6 | L12 | ON_TIME_ARRIVAL | >=90 | percent | S4 |
| LIQUIDITY_W3-W6 | L13 | DISPUTES_PER_100_JOBS | <3 | per_100 | S4 |
| LIQUIDITY_W3-W6 | L14 | TAKE_RATE_BLENDED | 15-18 | percent_of_GTV | E1_E3 |
| DEMAND_W7-W10 | D1 | CAC_BLENDED | <45 | usd | J1 |
| DEMAND_W7-W10 | D2 | COHORT_30D_REPEAT | >=30 | percent_proxy_for_M3_40% | S4 |
| DEMAND_W7-W10 | D3 | REVIEW_CAPTURE | >50 | percent_jobs | S4 |
| DEMAND_W7-W10 | D4 | REACTIVATION_LOOP_REVENUE | >=400/wk by W10 | usd | S8.6 |
| DEMAND_W7-W10 | D5 | JOBS_WEEKLY_RUN_RATE | ramp_25-150 | count | K11 |
| MEMBERSHIP_W11-W13 | M1 | MEMBERSHIP_PILOT_ENROLLED | 200 | count | S8.8 |
| MEMBERSHIP_W11-W13 | M2 | AUTOPAY_SHARE | >=60 | percent | S8.8 |
| MEMBERSHIP_W11-W13 | M3 | WARRANTY_VAULT_REGISTRATIONS | 100 | percent_of_member_homes | S8.8 |
| MEMBERSHIP_W11-W13 | M4 | RENEWAL_BASELINE_WEEK (M1/M2 retention tracked) | baseline | percent_intent | S8.8 |
| MEMBERSHIP_W11-W13 | M5 | CROSS_SELL_ATTACH | >0 by W13 | percent | O19 |
| MEMBERSHIP_W11-W13 | M6 | DTC_ORGANIC_SHARE | <=20 or >=27 baseline | percent | O17 |
| MEMBERSHIP_W11-W13 | M7 | RENEWAL_GATE_M12 (measured later) | >=70 | percent_at_month_12 | S8.8 |
| OPS_VA_W1-W13 | O1 | PROS_ACTIVE_VERIFIED_RICHMOND | >=120 by W0 (stagger complete pre-W1) | count | VA_VERIFY |
| OPS_VA_W1-W13 | O2 | COI_GL_AI_ENDORSEMENTS_MONITORED | 100 | percent_ACORD25_current | S8.4 |
| OPS_VA_W1-W13 | O3 | WATER_HEATER_CURRENT_JOBS | >=15 | percent_of_plumbing_jobs | trade_mix |
| OPS_VA_W1-W13 | O4 | CUSTOMER_SAFETY_INCIDENTS | 0 | per_1000_jobs | SF_gate |
| OPS_VA_W1-W13 | O5 | DOWNTIME_AVAILABILITY | >=99.9 | percent | us-east-1 |
| OPS_VA_W1-W13 | O6 | DEGRADED_PHONE_MODE_DRILL | 1 | per_month | SLO |
| OPS_VA_W1-W13 | O7 | LOSS_RATE (refund+claim+fraud % GMV) | <1 | percent | s5.3 |
| OPS_VA_W1-W13 | O8 | RESERVE_FLOOR | >=5 | percent_GMV | s5.3 |
| OPS_VA_W1-W13 | O9 | PAYOUT_QC_T_MINUS | 3-7 | days | s5.3 |
| OPS_VA_W1-W13 | O10 | CHARGEBACKS_PER_1000 | <3 | per_1000 | s5.3 |
| OPS_VA_W1-W13 | O11 | VCPA_CURE_OFFER_ISSUED_WITHIN_5DAY | 100 | percent_of_disputes | s2.2 |
| OPS_VA_W1-W13 | O12 | WRITTEN_CONTRACT_UPLOAD | 100 | percent_verify_completed_jobs | s2.1 |
| OPS_VA_W1-W13 | O13 | AUTO_ROUTE_ON_TIME (slot-level) | >=90 | percent | s4 |
| OPS_VA_W1-W13 | O14 | 1000JOBS_SPRINT_DONE | 1000 | completed_jobs | day7_gate |
| EXIT_EXIT | W1 | GATE_REVIEW vs PARAMETER_MODEL S7 scoreboard | S7 | ||
| NOTE_GATES | S4_LEVERS: MATCH=FILL>FIX>ONTIME>DISPUTES | D/S8.2: AI_ROUTED_>=80 and DISPATCH-FIRST_S8.2 orders intake | FLANK_CONDITION: after liquidity_>=200_jobs_B12-13 add ELECTRICAL then WATER_HEATER_C2 | escape:S8.1 leakage<85% freeze demand spend / S8.4 trust cloak not live=no demand buy | THIS_TRACKER_IS_RUNNABLE: fill w1..w13 from DWH kpi_snapshots weekly |
| OPS_VA2 | V2-L1 | VCDPA_45D_RESPONSE (privacy demand responding <=45 days) | 100 | percent_of_demands | s2.4 |
| OPS_VA2 | V2-L2 | TCPA_CONSENT_STORED (prior express written consent per brand) | 100 | percent_of_SMS_markets | s2.4 |
| OPS_VA2 | V2-L3 | TM_CLEARANCE_DECISION (fixxo.in clearance) | doc by W0 | decision | trademark |
| OPS_VA2 | V2-S1 | FRAUD_FLAGS_TRIAGED_UNDER_4H | 100 | percent_of_flags | fraud rail |
| OPS_VA2 | V2-S2 | KYC_OFAC_CLEARED (OFAC+NSOPW+VA courts+DPOR) | 100 | percent_of_ACTIVE | KYC gate |
| OPS_VA2 | V2-S3 | COLLUSION_PAIRS_CLOSED (same-IP pairing) | 0 | open_over_48h | collusion rail |
| OPS_VA2 | V2-S4 | PCI_SCOPE0_AUDIT (PAN never in D1/KV/R2) | clean | monthly | PCI |
| OPS_VA2 | F1 | PAYOUT_AGING (QC t-minus release) | <=7 | days_0_over_14 | s5.3 |
| OPS_VA2 | F2 | W9_EXEMPT_COVERAGE_BEFORE_RELEASE | 100 | percent | 1099 |
| OPS_VA2 | F4 | CHARGEBACK_RECOVERY | >=80 | percent | disputes |
| OPS_VA2 | T1 | TRAINING_PASS_RATE (certified before first dispatch) | >=90 | percent | S1 |
| OPS_VA2 | T3 | DPOR_REVERIFY_AT_DISPATCH | 100 | percent | dispatch gate |
| OPS_VA2 | T4 | NO_JOB_SPLITTING_ACK (Class C floor) | 100 | percent | sec54.1-1103 |
| OPS_VA2 | T5 | REQUALIFICATION_UNDER_48H (fallback same-day) | 100 | percent | restore gate |
| OPS_VA2 | Q1 | QC_AUDIT_COVERAGE (photo+satisfaction every job) | >=95 | percent | QC gate |
| OPS_VA2 | Q2 | FIRST_VISIT_FIX_RATE | >=85 | percent | S4 |
| OPS_VA2 | Q3 | PRO_QUALITY_SCORE (deactivate <4.2 same-day) | 100 | percent_ge_4.2 | quality |
| OPS_VA2 | Q4 | DISPUTE_LOOP (cure<=5d payout3-7d 0open>14d leak>=85) | <=3 | per_100_jobs | S8.1 |
| OPS_VA2 | D6 | PARTNER_SOURCED_SHARE (PM/GRAR channel) | >=30-50 | percent | demand pipeline |
| OPS_VA2 | D7 | INTAKE_CAP_FILL (caps locked by 06:00) | 100 | percent_daily | demand |
| OPS_VA2 | D8 | HONEST_DEMAND_GUARD | 0 | none_fabricated | CM-04 |
| OPS_VA2 | R1 | INTAKE_ERROR (0 job-dump >60s) | <1 | percent | SLO |
| OPS_VA2 | R2 | FEATURE_FLAG_ROLLBACK | <15 | minutes_100pct_audited | blast radius |
| OPS_VA2 | R3 | ONCALL_COVERAGE_24_7 | 100 | percent | W0 |
| OPS_VA2 | R4 | POSTMORTEM_RATE | 1 | per_incident_within_3d | runbook |
| OPS_VA2 | A1 | AI_ROUTED_SHARE (Day-3 gate then arm auto-dispatch) | >=80 | percent | S8.2 |
| OPS_VA2 | A2 | STRANDED_JOBS (unassigned >2h) | 0 | count | escape hatch |
| OPS_VA2 | A3 | PRICING_WIN_RATE | >=60 | percent | S4 |
| OPS_VA2 | A4 | KPI_SCOREBOARD_FRESHNESS (kpi_snapshots) | <=24 | hours_after_close | S7 |
| OPS_VA2 | A5 | SLAB_LEAK_SETTLEMENT_VS_QUOTE (master-tech 100) | +-15 | percent | specialty |
| OPS_VA2 | A6 | HUMAN_OVERRIDE_AGENT_ERROR | <20 and <1 | percent | dispatch |
| OPS_VA2 | E1 | RICHMOND_S9_GATE | all GREEN | boolean | S9 |
| OPS_VA2 | E2 | METRO_OSCORE_RECALIBRATED (NoVA before spend) | >=0.65 | percent | expansion |
| OPS_VA2 | E3 | FALLBACK_PROS_PER_CLUSTER | >=5 | count_by_W-1 | supply |
| OPS_VA2 | E4 | DEMAND_DENSITY_THRESHOLD | met | per_zip | zip scoring |
| OPS_VA2 | E5 | LAUNCH_CHECKLIST_TICKED (W-3 to W0 clock) | 100 | percent | expansion |
| OPS_VA2 | E6 | REGULATORY_CONFIRMS_PRIMARY_SOURCED (Fairfax BPOL) | resolved | by_W-3 | BPOL |
| OPS_VA2 | MA | MEMBERSHIP_ATTACH (W1-2 households) | >=15 | percent_by_M3 | S8.8 |
| OPS_VA2 | MNR | MEMBERSHIP_NRR | >=100 | percent_by_W13 | S8.8 |
| OPS_VA2 | MS | SENSOR_INSTALL_RATE | >=80 | percent_of_member_homes | sensor |
| OPS_VA2 | MD | MEMBER_DISPATCH_ON_TIME | >=95 | percent | SLA |
| OPS_VA2 | P1 | PARTS_SLA_ON_TIME | >=90 | percent | parts gate |
| OPS_VA2 | P2 | PARTS_HOLD_CLOSE (same-visit-or-hold) | >=85 | percent | parts |
| OPS_VA2 | P3 | LAUNCH_NO_SHOW_DUE_TO_PARTS | 0 | count | runbook |
| OPS_VA2 | P4 | BACKORDER_REBOOKING | <=10 | percent_by_W6 | parts |
| OPS_VA2 | P5 | PARTS_CAUSED_FIX_MISSES | <5 | percent | QC |
| OPS_VA2 | K1 | ORGANIC_SHARE_OF_BOOKINGS | >=70 | percent | demand |
| OPS_VA2 | K2 | REFERRAL_SHARE | >=25-30 | percent_by_W6 | demand |
| OPS_VA2 | K3 | CAC_BY_ZIP (23220 vs 23113 spread) | tracked | weekly | demand |
| OPS_VA2 | K4 | FLYER_NEXTDOOR_TO_BOOKING | >=10 | percent | demand |
| OPS_VA2 | K5 | LSA_CPC_TEST_DECODED | decoded | before_scale | W6 gate |
| WOMEN_W0-W13 | WH1 | WOMEN_OWNED_ACTIVE_PARTNERS_HERNDON_RESTON | >=20 | count_by_W0 | certified |
| WOMEN_W0-W13 | WH2 | WOMEN_TECHNICIANS_AVAILABLE | >=28 | count_by_W0 | verified |
| WOMEN_W0-W13 | WH3 | WOMEN_CUSTOMER_SHARE | >=45 | percent_of_booked_jobs | women |
| WOMEN_W0-W13 | WH4 | REQUEST_A_WOMAN_FULFILMENT | >=80 | percent_within_window | women |
| WOMEN_W0-W13 | WH5 | QUALITY_PARITY_WOMEN_LED_JOBS | +-3 | points_vs_all_led | women |
| WOMEN_W0-W13 | WH6 | SAFETY_REPORTS_RESOLVED_SAME_DAY | 100 | percent | women |
| WOMEN_W0-W13 | WH7 | CERTIFICATIONS_VERIFIED_NOT_SELF_ATTESTED | >=60 | percent_women_owned | women |
| WOMEN_W0-W13 | WH8 | WOMEN_TECH_RETENTION_90D | >=85 | percent | women |
§2 · Census ACS + county dataThe five markets
~187,000 people · ~67,000 households · ~44,000 owner-occupied · ~35,000 repair-active households/year (≈2,900 repair jobs/month at national frequency). High-ticket, low price-sensitivity: a guarantee market, not a price market.
| Market | Population | Households | Median HHI | Median home | Owner-occ | Median age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Herndon, VA | 25,649 | 7,796 | $148,000 | $599,100 | 62.1% | 35.1 |
| Reston, VA | 63,542 | ~26,000 | $139,515 | $616,000 | 60.9% | 40.2 |
| Chantilly, VA | 24,036 | ~8,700 | $157,124 | $663,600 | 81.1% | 41.3 |
| Ashburn, VA | ~50,000 | ~16,000 | ~$175,000 | ~$700,000 | ~78% | ~36 |
| Fairfax City, VA | ~24,000 | ~8,800 | ~$135,000 | ~$620,000 | ~65% | ~39 |
§3 · Housecall Pro / FindTrustedHelp / Houzz 2026Demand ranking
The market is repair-led: 79% of homeowners plan a repair in 2026; repairs are 87% of plumbing jobs, 96% of appliance jobs, 88% of HVAC jobs. Bar = national market share. Launch set in bold.
| Category | Market share | Avg ticket | Repair share | Hire rate | Launch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HVAC | 18% | $4,500 | 88% | 40% | Launch |
| Plumbing | 14% | $350 | 87% | 36% | Launch |
| Electrical | 12% | $400 | mixed | 41% | Launch |
| Roofing | 10% | $8,500 | storm | 17% | Excluded |
| Landscaping | 9% | $2,800 | — | — | Wave 2 |
| Cleaning | 8% | $2,400 | — | — | Wave 2 |
| Pest | 5% | $450 | — | — | Excluded |
| Painting | 5% | $3,200 | low | 28% | Wave 2 |
| Flooring | 4% | $4,000 | low | 20% | Wave 2 |
| Appliance repair | 3% | $300 | 96% | — | Launch |
| Handyman | ~2% | $250 | high | 25% | Launch |
| Water heaters | in plumbing | $1,200–2,400 | 100% | 18% | Launch |
§4 · Density model × 67k households, +20% NoVASupply estimates — and the gap
Read this before quoting a number: women-owned businesses in the licensed repair trades number in the low tens across NoVA (11 certified residential remodelers statewide). The pilot therefore recruits women technicians (150–300 reachable, any firm ownership) — Model B. A women-owned-firms-only pilot (60–100 needed) does not exist.
| Category | Est. businesses | 1–3 crew | Women-led est. | Exact count via |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cleaning | ~200 | ~140 | ~40–60 | County register + WBENC (no state licence) |
| Landscaping | ~165 | ~110 | ~15–25 | DPOR + county |
| Handyman | ~125 | ~95 | ~12–20 | DPOR Class C; unlicensed ≤$1,000 |
| Painting | ~100 | ~70 | ~8–14 | DPOR Class C + WBENC |
| Electrical | ~85 | ~40 | ~2–4 | DPOR Tradesmen — ELE Master/Journeyman |
| Plumbing | ~75 | ~38 | ~1–3 | DPOR Tradesmen — PLB Master/Journeyman |
| HVAC | ~68 | ~30 | ~1–3 | DPOR HVA + Master HVAC tradesman |
| Flooring | ~42 | ~30 | ~5–9 | DPOR Class C |
| Roofing | ~42 | ~18 | ~1–3 | DPOR Class A/B/C |
| Appliance | ~34 | ~24 | ~3–6 | No VA licence ≤$1,000 + factory-authorised lists |
| Water heaters | in plumbing | — | ~1–3 | DPOR PLB — licensed at any price |
| Pest | ~25 | ~10 | ~1–2 | VDACS certification |
| Locksmith | ~12 | ~8 | ~0–2 | DPOR locksmith certification |
§5 · From db/partners_herndon_plumbing.csvSeed partners — Herndon / Reston
15 businesses as supplied. Re-verify before dialling: H & S and Beltway share a primary number; toll-free "dispatch" lines may be franchises. All marked verified_phone = no in the CSV.
| Business | Base | Phone | Alt | Categories |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardinal Plumbing, Heating & Air | Herndon 20170 | +17037825055 | — | plumbing, hvac, water_heater |
| Herndon Plumbing & Heating Inc. | Herndon 20170 | +17034373284 | — | plumbing, water_heater |
| H & S Plumbing | Herndon 20170 | +17034376966 | — | plumbing, drain |
| Beltway Sewer & Plumbing Services | Herndon 20170 | +17034376966 | +17035968947 | plumbing, sewer, drain |
| The Honest Plumbing Service | Herndon 20170 | +17039400853 | — | plumbing |
| Sirone Plumbing Services | Reston 20190 | +17036889000 | — | plumbing |
| Mint Plumbing LLC | Reston 20190 | — | plumbing | |
| Daystarr Plumbing | Reston 20190 | +17034760191 | — | plumbing |
| P & D Plumbing | Sterling 20164 | +17039394473 | — | plumbing |
| Mega Multiservice | Herndon 20171 | +15716706618 | — | plumbing, handyman |
| JC Plumbing and Drain Cleaning | Herndon 20170 | +18009836777 | — | plumbing, drain |
| Happy Drain Guys Plumbing | Fairfax 22030 | +15719927179 | — | plumbing, drain |
| Pioneer Plumbers | Herndon 20170 | +17035083088 | — | plumbing |
| DB's Plumbing & Drain | Herndon 20170 | +17034578686 | — | plumbing, drain |
| Plumbers of America LLC | Herndon 20170 | +17034397151 | — | plumbing |
§6 · From db/SOURCING.mdSourcing channels
Registries — build from these
| Source | Yields |
|---|---|
| VA DPOR LicenseLookup | Every regulated individual + business, status, class, expiry, discipline |
| DPOR Board for Tradesmen | Plumbing, electrical, HVAC, gas-fitting certifications |
| WA L&I Verify | Registration, bond, insurance, comp, citations, bond lawsuits |
| data.wa.gov | Machine-readable WA contractor feed (bulk route) |
| Fairfax County cregister | Registered local trade businesses |
Directories — contact detail only
| Source | Yields |
|---|---|
| Thumbtack Herndon | Independents already buying leads — easiest to convert |
| Yelp Herndon plumbing | Phone numbers + review counts to append |
| WBENC · SBA WOSB | Women-owned verification (51% owned/controlled) |
| Womyn Owned | 1,098 SBA-verified women-owned trades vendors |
| Factory-authorised servicer lists | Highest-quality appliance pool (Whirlpool, Bosch, LG) |
Competitor ad landings on file (demand intel, not supply): vesta-plumbing.com, allstarpros.com/handyman, allamericandrainservices.com — keyword, match-type and page structure captured in
db/SOURCING.md §2.1.§7 · From kpi-map.jsonCode index by department
| Department | Codes | Count |
|---|---|---|
| legal | V2-L1 · V2-L2 · V2-L3 | 3 |
| security | V2-S1 · V2-S2 · V2-S3 · V2-S4 | 4 |
| finance | F1 · F2 · F4 | 3 |
| training | T1 · T3 · T4 · T5 | 4 |
| qa | Q1 · Q2 · Q3 · Q4 | 4 |
| demand | D6 · D7 · D8 | 3 |
| engineering | R1 · R2 · R3 · R4 | 4 |
| data-ai | A1 · A2 · A3 · A4 · A5 · A6 | 6 |
| expansion | E1 · E2 · E3 · E4 · E5 · E6 | 6 |
| membership | MA · MNR · MS · MD | 4 |
| parts | P1 · P2 · P3 · P4 · P5 | 5 |
| marketing | K1 · K2 · K3 · K4 · K5 | 5 |
| women-first | WH1 · WH2 · WH3 · WH4 · WH5 · WH6 · WH7 · WH8 | 8 |
§8 · From metro_scorecard.csvMetro scores (reference)
Weights D .2 / S .15 / P .15 / K .15 / L .15 / R .1 / M .1 · O ≥ 0.65 commit · 0.45–0.65 pilot · below postpone. NOTE: legacy rows use an undocumented formula — flagged for recalibration; Richmond computed under documented weights.
| Metro | D | S | P | K | L | R | M | O-Score | Decision |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin | 0.78 | 0.70 | 0.75 | 0.45 | 0.60 | 0.30 | 0.65 | 0.681 | COMMIT |
| Phoenix | 0.70 | 0.65 | 0.65 | 0.40 | 0.55 | 0.35 | 0.60 | 0.633 | PILOT |
| Dallas-Fort Worth | 0.72 | 0.68 | 0.70 | 0.50 | 0.55 | 0.30 | 0.60 | 0.639 | PILOT |
| Atlanta | 0.66 | 0.62 | 0.65 | 0.42 | 0.52 | 0.32 | 0.58 | 0.614 | PILOT |
| Houston | 0.64 | 0.60 | 0.62 | 0.48 | 0.50 | 0.34 | 0.55 | 0.585 | PILOT |
| Tampa | 0.60 | 0.58 | 0.60 | 0.38 | 0.48 | 0.33 | 0.55 | 0.584 | PILOT |
| Orlando | 0.58 | 0.55 | 0.58 | 0.36 | 0.46 | 0.33 | 0.55 | 0.573 | PILOT |
| Nashville | 0.60 | 0.60 | 0.62 | 0.37 | 0.50 | 0.30 | 0.58 | 0.601 | PILOT |
| Richmond (EST) | 0.72 | 0.70 | 0.68 | 0.48 | 0.55 | 0.35 | 0.62 | 0.603 | PILOT |